By the time the corn !
By the time the corn !
Whether corn ngoMac Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ( FAO ) has warned of the risk of food price crisis world , but in fact it is not at risk from rice , which one of the two " culprits " the main is corn . Therefore , it is likely this will be a golden opportunity for corn , which is being " overshadowed " than some other agricultural products of our country .
FAO statistics show that prices are mainly three kinds of wheat traded on the world markets of the U.S. and Argentina last February reached a record U.S. $ 349 / tonne since January 4-2008 far . Prices are mainly two types of corn and two of the country in the first days of March has reached all-time record of 304 U.S. dollars / ton . Meanwhile , in contrast , white rice 100 % B in Thailand is at 531 dollars / ton , although slightly higher than the average of 518 dollars / ton in 2010 , but has decreased continuously in three months and down from the average of 695 dollars / ton in 2008 .
" Heat " of the price of corn and wheat prices is what 's particularly disturbing world . If the average return since 2000 , the price of corn monthly deals on the world market price of rice by 38.5 % , but has now been pushed to 57.3 % ( up 18.8 % ) , also compared with the price of wheat , the corresponding figure is 73.2 % and 89.7 % to 16.5 % .
The price of corn and wheat prices rose while racing to cool down prices derived from the three " Ministry of Food " in the two opposite extremes . Forecast in mid March past of the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that , although world rice consumption in the current season strong , but also increase rice yield stronger, so world rice reserves will increase from 79 days to 81 days use . This is the fourth consecutive season " rice bo " world full of more ( 2007-2008 season only 65 days of use ) .
Meanwhile , world wheat production this crop fell by nearly 35 million tons that increased consumption of 10.5 million tonnes , the reserves will be significantly reduced from 110 days to 100 days use . The condition of the corn market was much more serious . Because corn yield world enters the second consecutive decline, which would reduce the current crop of about 27.7 million tonnes , while consumption increased strongly consecutive season in August , so " bo corn " reserves will step into the third consecutive season and fell just enough to use in 51 days .
In the context of the world food market as such, the livestock industry and food processing industry of our country's livestock struggling with difficulties due to increasingly heavy dependence on imported raw materials , in that both importing corn and wheat are skyrocketing , is understandable . The statistics of the FAO and the International Trade Centre ( ITC ) shows that , if the import volume of corn in our country in 2001 and only 50,000 tons in 2008 and reached nearly 670,000 tons only , the 2009 increase nearly 1.5 million tons . For wheat , too . If 2001 was only 742,000 tons imported in 2010 it had increased to 2.2 million tons .
If wheat is a staple food that we can meet your needs by imports , imports of corn to produce mainly for animal feed . This is an inadequacy of domestic agriculture . According to Prof. Chen Hong Wei , former Research Director of the Institute corn , international organizations have assessed research programs and development of hybrid corn the fastest growing country in the world for 12 years ( 1995-2007 ) : production increased by 4 times the average yield increased by 2 times the area increased nearly 2 times. However , according to the Department of Livestock , 2008 we need 4.5 million tons of corn for feed production , but domestic production meets only 3.8 million tons , to 670,000 tons imported , 2010 imported 740,000 tonnes , 912 000 tonnes in 2015 and 2020 will surpass the threshold of 1 million tons .
In fact , corn production in recent years has leveled off . Five year average (2005-2009) , muscle area increased by only 1.86 % / year and production increased 5.25 % / year , are far lower than many other crops . This is the main cause leading to increased corn imports . More ominously , in the coming years , while corn yields increased by only 5.25 % / year growth target of the livestock sector has been identified in the development strategy up to 2020 up to 8-10 % / year .
Therefore , if there is no significant growth in both area and yield of corn in the coming years , our country will be in danger of becoming importers of corn , " medium " of the world , such as Colombia , the Netherlands , Ireland Egypt , China , Spain .
Prospects for world corn prices will continue to stand at a very high level in the long term is what is should be noted . As estimated by FAO , in the current decade , corn production and consumption worldwide will increase from over 1.1 billion tons to 1.3 billion tons , of which more than three -quarters are used as food feed , and world corn prices will fluctuate around lofty level as in 2010.
According to FAO 's forecast , instead of 38.5 % as the price of rice in the recent 11 years , the average world price of corn from now until the end of the decade will be equal to 44.3 % compared with the price of rice . In other words , from now until the end of the decade , food corn will be the most expensive . In such conditions , perhaps Vietnam should not continue to grow corn in a " erratic " as in recent years . Conversely , should drastically speed up production of corn is at least sufficient to meet domestic demand in order to avoid increasing imports .
according SGtimes
