Plentiful supply is motivating the world wheat trade season 2013/14
FAO raised its forecast for wheat trade season 2013/14 by 1 million tonnes since October to 142 million tons, up 1.9% (or 2.7 million tonnes) compared to the season 2012 / 13 but less than 4% (equivalent to 5.5 million tons) compared to the 2011/12 season (147.5 million tons). World wheat trade is increasing due to increasing imports of some countries in which most are Azerbaijan, Israel, Indonesia, Indonesia Indonesia and Thailand.
World wheat trade season 2013/14 is increased by some Asian countries imported more than offset the decrease in imports of European regions. In Asia, total wheat production in 2013/14 crop imports are forecast at 69.7 million tonnes, up 5 million tonnes from the 2012/13 season; in which China will account for the largest share in total wheat imports of the continent. The price in the country reached a record close last September and demand for high quality wheat rose sharply pushed wheat procurement season of 2013/14 to 7.5 million tonnes China, up 4.5 million tons from last season and reached the highest level since the mid-90s wheat imports in Indonesia, Indonesia Indonesia is forecast at 7.2 million tonnes, up 500,000 tonnes compared with the harvest before. Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia does not produce wheat so that wheat imports will continue to increase to meet domestic demand. Pakistan's wheat imports are forecast to rise 200,000 tonnes to 950,000 tonnes due to higher domestic prices and low grain reserves. Other countries in Asia boost wheat imports in 2013/14 season is Africa Philippines, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Yemen, while the Islamic Republic of Iran may import 1 million reduction tons to 4.5 million tons, mainly due to the decline of market demand and a slight increase wheat production this year.
In Africa, imports 2013/14 wheat crop at 38 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes higher than the 2012/13 season. In North Africa, Egypt's imports expected 9.5 million tonnes, 1.2 million tonnes higher than the previous season due to the program of government subsidies. Import turnover of Tunisia wheat is forecast to increase from 1.5 million tonnes last season to 2.4 million tonnes in the 2013/14 season. Wheat imports rose sharply reflecting the decline of the industry domestic wheat production this year. In contrast, wheat production in Morocco officers can mark a new record result in the country significantly reduced the volume of imports to 2.3 million tonnes. Imports by most countries in the Sahara region is forecast to remain as the previous season. Kenya plans to increase wheat imports seasons 2013/14 to 1.1 million tons, up 350,000 tons from the previous season due to the slight decline in domestic production and demand for wheat growing.
In Europe, imports of wheat crop is forecast 2013/14 fell to 7.6 million tons, 800,000 tons less than the 2012/13 season. The main reason is because the wheat import demand fell in the Russian Federation, with the import volume will be halved to 600,000 tonnes due to the recovery of domestic production. A bumper crop in Europe are predicted to cause low levels of wheat imports than the year before.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, in season 2013/14 imports are forecast to change little in most countries. Brazilian imports are forecast at 7.5 million tonnes, up slightly from the previous season, while imports from the US increased more than normal to compensate for declining supplies from Argentina ti -na - the market supply of Brazilian traditional wheat. In contrast, Mexico's imports forecast at 3.8 million tonnes, slightly lower than the previous season due to the increase in domestic production.
Regarding exports, compared with the 2012/13 season, output of wheat exports in 2013/14 season strong, especially from major exporting countries. Export volume of the Russian Federation and Ukraine is expected to increase the most, up 5 million tonnes respectively and 3 million tons. In addition, the export of wheat from Canada, Europe and the United States are expected to far exceed the previous export season. Meanwhile, the volume of exports from Argentina, Argentina could drop to 4 million tonnes - the lowest level in more than two decades, reflecting the situation of the domestic production very difficult due to crop failure in 2012 and expected production will be down below average this year. Exports from Australia may also decline due to low reserves despite some forecasts about the recovery of the domestic production activities. Among other exporting countries, Brazil, Paraguay and Turkey are forecast to have wheat exports slightly lower than the previous year.
