The trade deficit with the trend to divest from developing economies

Specifically, the agency has cited the data on the first 6 months of 2015, the trade deficit is estimated 3.75 billion, equivalent to 4.8% of export turnover; in particular, the trade surplus of 6.07 billion US dollars of FDI, domestic corporate sector deficit 9.83 billion.

Trade deficit increased because both exports and imports slowed rapidly. Separately the first 5 months of 2015, export growth (yoy) is less than half the same period in 2014 (7.3% versus 15.4%).

The export turnover of the group of items in both statistical value and volume fell 0.22% over the same period 2014, mainly due to the price factor when the average export price of the goods on fell 1, 3%.

Meanwhile, import growth (yoy), 5 May / 2015 to a half higher than the same period in 2014 (15.8% versus 9.6%).

Imports increased mainly due to increased import of goods for production as: electronics, computers, components increased 36.9%; machinery, tools and other facilities increased by 35.9%; plastic products increased by 21.5%; textile materials, footwear up 12.8%.

This shows that the trade deficit has increased due to lower world commodity prices recently due to the economic structure dependent on imported machinery and raw materials production.

The agency also said that the trade deficit with the tendency to withdraw capital from the emerging economies will require more effort to achieve stable exchange rate between now and the end of 2015 and in 2016.

World Bank - World Bank forecast rate on investment (direct and indirect) / GDP in developing countries will fall from 5.4% in 2014 to 5.1% and 5% respectively in 2015 and 2016.

Besides, the Monitoring Committee, noting the state budget revenues on the same period in 2014 increased more slowly.

Until 15/06 day total budget revenues increased by 7.8% over the same period (same period in 2014 increased by 16.2%). Cause revenues slow months increased due to:

First, oil revenues accumulated 15/6 only 35% estimate, down 32.5% over the same period; paid by the average oil price remains low;

Second, revenues from exports and imports rose only 4.1% yoy in 2014 (same period in 2014 increased by 29.6%); by imports of some commodities have high rates slowly increase over the same period in 2014.

In addition, plans to issue government bonds in trouble. As of 17/6, Treasury bond issuance reached only 71 950 billion, down 47% from the same period in 2014; completed 20% of the planned Q2 and 1/3 not reached 2015 target bond yield upward trend since March 3/2015.